The Winners’ Formula: How to Close Nearly 9 Out of 10 Trades for Profits

The market throws a lot of noise at you. Sensationalized headlines, online rumors, and more half-baked opinions than you can count. 

Too many people get dragged into it in the hopes that it will make them better investors. 

But I learned early on in my career that the best way to win consistently is to tune out the noise and focus on the signals that actually move stocks.

That’s the core of how I trade today. I don’t try to predict the future or outsmart the market. 

I use a simple, repeatable process that helps me filter through thousands of stocks and zero in on the few that show the right mix of strength and timing. 

It’s the same approach I used while managing over $1 billion on Wall Street. And it’s behind my 87% win rate this year. 

Today, I’ll share the formula I use to find companies on the verge of liftoff.

It’s a mix 3 things.

Fundamental factors…

Technical factors…

And a third, but perhaps the most important factor of all, the Alpha Fuse.

When all three of those pieces line up, the odds tilt sharply in your favor, and that’s how you put yourself in position to close nearly nine out of ten trades for profits.

Fundamentals: Finding a Company Worth Buying

It’s not uncommon for a stock to jump 20% or 30% in a single day for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying business. 

Speculation can create wild moves, but those moves rarely last. That’s not the kind of setup I’m interested in. 

I’d rather focus on companies with real businesses, demand, and staying power. When you begin with strength, everything that follows is easier. 

And in my experience, fundamentals eliminate most of the noise before you ever look at a stock chart.

There are three key metrics I look at on the fundamental side: revenue, cash flow, and earnings. I want to see consistent growth in each. 

It’s fine if a company has one bad quarter every now and then, as long as there’s a clear pattern of growth over the past few years.

That kind of consistency tells you the company is doing something right and that customers are responding.

I also want to see a track record of beating analyst expectations on each of these three metrics.

Some companies beat expectations once or twice because of timing or luck. The ones worth trading are the ones that do it repeatedly. 

When management consistently delivers, it shows competence, discipline, and a business model that’s working. Great companies have a way of continuing to win.

Talen Energy Corp. (TLN) is a good example. You don’t need to know much about the company for our purposes here, but a little context helps. 

The company is an independent power producer with significant exposure to the rising demand for electricity. 

Over the past few years, artificial intelligence has driven rapid growth in data centers. Those facilities require huge amounts of reliable power. 

That dynamic has put Talen on my radar for a while. It checks every box I look for in a fundamentally strong company. 

The numbers are solid, the business is growing, and the company has shown a pattern of performing well. 

That’s why I recommended the stock around this same time last year as one of my top stocks for 2025.

Anyone who bought shares had the chance to capture gains of up to 105% just by buying and holding the stock.

Solid fundamentals can lead to impressive returns on their own, especially if you plan on holding for the long term. But I’m more interested in short-term trading setups. 

So in those situations, I look at strong fundamentals as a foundation for trades that have a much higher chance of working out. 

That brings me to the next part of my formula.

Technicals: Nailing Your Trade’s Timing 

Technicals tell you when a tradable setup has formed, allowing you to capture fast, repeatable gains on the stocks we’ve identified with strong fundamentals.

First, I look for a stock in an established uptrend. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages must be above a rising 200-day moving average.

When the shorter-term averages line up above the longer-term ones, it’s a sign that momentum is building. 

I also look at the relative strength index (RSI), an indicator of whether a stock is overbought or oversold.

When a great company becomes oversold and begins to recover, it often creates some of the cleanest short-term setups you’ll find. 

Volume and price behavior help confirm what’s happening beneath the surface. Rising volume tells you bigger players are getting involved. 

Steady price action shows that the stock is being accumulated rather than pushed around by noise. 

When these elements come together, you get a much clearer picture of where the stock wants to go next.

Again, Talen is another perfect example. After recommending it as a long-term idea, I kept watching the price action. 

Not long after my recommendation last year, the technicals flashed the kind of signal I look for before a short-term trade. 

The company got caught up in a broader selloff among AI stocks, triggering my technical “buy” signals. That’s when I recommended doubling down on the stock. 

Anyone who followed along could have booked a 22% gain in just nine days as the stock bounced back. 

That’s the kind of clean, high-probability setup this process is designed to find again and again.

Another opportunity presented itself this summer. Instead of buying shares, we used call options to amplify the move. That trade shot up 177% in under three months. 

Not every trade will move that far. But the same formula that finds steady, reliable winners can also uncover moments when the potential reward makes the extra risk worthwhile.

Options aren’t for everyone, but for traders with a higher risk appetite, they can turn a good setup into something much more powerful.

When you piece together strong fundamentals and clean technicals, you get a system that helps you zero in on the kinds of opportunities most traders never even notice. 

It helps you find high-quality companies, time your entries with precision, and capture short-term moves while still staying aligned with powerful long-term trends. 

But as powerful as these tools are, they’re not the whole picture. There’s one final pattern I haven’t shown you yet. 

The “Alpha Fuse”: One Last Piece of the Puzzle

The final factor is something that’s been critical to my 87% win rate. Something that has let me dominate the market year after year. It’s the last factor I consider before pulling the trigger on a new trade.

In my experience, it’s one of the strongest signals you can use to anticipate where a stock is headed next. 

I call it the “Alpha Fuse.”

Most traders can’t see it. And there is a reason why it’s not well known. But I’ve relied on it for years because it helps me target trades with the highest probability of success. 

When the Alpha Fuse lights up on a stock, the odds of closing the trade for a profit increase significantly.

I’ll walk you through this final indicator at The Paradigm Alpha Summit on Tuesday, Nov. 25, at 11:00 a.m. ET.

You’ll see why it’s become such an important part of my process and how you can begin using it to close out winning trades more consistently.

And just for attending, you’ll also get one of my top stock picks for right now, completely free.

I look forward to sharing all of the details with you soon. So stay tuned.

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